Cómo sobrevivir en el mundo del crimen: Special ID 2013, película hindi doblada

Trends in the atmospheric forcing of the Southern Ocean are dominated by a strengthening of westerly winds in recent decades (Swart et al., 2015a332), but there is no evidence that this enhanced wind stress has significantly altered the ACC transport. While the annual mean value of transport is stable in the instrumental period (Chidichimo et al., 2014333; Koenig et al., 2014334; Donohue et al., 2016335) it is difficult to resolve changes in barotropic transport; overall there is medium confidence that ACC transport is only weakly sensitive to changes in winds. This is consistent with longer-term analyses that find only minimal changes in ACC transport since the last glaciation (McCave et al., 2013336). Theoretical predictions and high-resolution ocean modelling suggest that the weak sensitivity of the ACC to changes in wind stress is a consequence of eddy saturation (Munday et al., 2013337), whereby the time-mean state of the ocean remains close to a marginal condition for eddy instability and hence additional energy input from stronger winds cascades rapidly into the smaller-scale eddy field. Satellite measurements of eddy kinetic energy over the last two decades are consistent with this, showing a statistically significant upward trend in eddy energy in the Pacific and Indian Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean (Hogg et al., 2015338) (medium confidence). This is supported by eddy-resolving models, which also show a marked regional variability (Patara et al., 2016339), and there is evidence that local hotspots in eddy energy, especially downstream of major topographic features including the Drake Passage, Kerguelen Plateau, Campbell Plateau and the East Pacific Rise, may dominate the regional fields (Thompson and Naveira Garabato, 2014340).

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Antarctic coastal polynyas are biological hot-spots that support high rates of primary production (Ainley et al., 2015454; Arrigo et al., 2015455) due to a combination of both high light (Park et al., 2017456) and high nutrient levels, especially iron (Gerringa et al., 2015457). Basal ice shelf melt is the primary supplier of iron to coastal polynyas (Arrigo and van Dijken, 2015458) although sea ice melt and intrusions of Circumpolar Deep Water are significant in the Ross Sea (McGillicuddy et al., 2015459; Hatta et al., 2017460). As ice shelves retreat, the polynyas created in their wake also increase local primary production: the new polynyas created after the collapse of the Larsen A and B ice shelves are as productive as other Antarctic shelf regions, likely increasing organic matter export and altering marine ecosystem evolution (Cape et al., 2013461). The recent calving of Mertz Glacier Tongue in East Antarctica has altered sea ice and ocean stratification (Fogwill et al., 2016462) such that polynyas there are now twice as productive (Shadwick et al., 2017463).

Increases in polar cruise tourism pose risks and opportunities related to development, education, safety (including search and rescue), security within communities and environmental sustainability (Johnston et al., 2012a868; Johnston et al., 2012b869; Stewart et al., 2013870; Dawson et al., 2014871; Lasserre and Têtu, 2015872; Stewart et al., 2015873). In the Arctic, there are also risks and opportunities related to employment, health and well-being, and the commodification of culture (Stewart et al., 2013874; Stewart et al., 2015875). There is high confidence that biodiversity supported by ice-free areas, particularly those on the AP, are vulnerable to the introduction of terrestrial alien species via tourists and scientists (Chown et al., 2012876; Huiskes et al., 2014877; Hughes et al., 2015878; Duffy et al., 2017879; Lee et al., 2017a880) (Box 3.3) as well as to the direct impacts of humans (Pertierra et al., 2017881). The tourism sector relies on a set of regulations that apply to all types of maritime shipping, yet cruise ships intentionally travel off regular shipping corridors and serve a very different purpose than other vessel types, so there is a need for region-specific governance regimes, specialised infrastructure, and focused policy attention (Dawson et al., 2014882; Pashkevich et al., 2015883; Pizzolato et al., 2016884; Johnston et al., 2017885). Private pleasure craft remain almost completely unregulated, and will pose unique risks in the future (Johnston et al., 2017886).

There is high confidence that both risks and opportunities arise for coastal communities with changing sea ice and open water conditions. Of particular concern for coastal communities is landfast sea ice (Section 3.3.1.1.5), which creates an extension of the land in winter that facilitates travel (Inuit Circumpolar Council Canada, 20141860). The floe edge position, timing and dynamics of freeze-up and break-up, sea ice stability through the winter, and length of the summer open water season are important indicators of changing ice conditions and safe travel (Gearheard et al., 20131861; Eicken et al., 20141862; Baztan et al., 20171863). Warming water temperature, altered salinity profiles, snow properties, changing currents and winds all have consequences for the use of sea ice as a travel or hunting platform (Hansen et al., 20131864; Eicken et al., 20141865; Clark et al., 2016a1866). More leads (areas of open water), especially in the spring, can mean more hunting opportunities such as whaling off the coast of Alaska (Hansen et al., 20131867; Eicken et al., 20141868). In Nunavut, a floe edge closer to shore improves access to marine mammals such as seals or narwhal (Ford et al., 20131869). However, these conditions also hamper access to coastal or inland hunting grounds (Hansen et al., 20131870; Durkalec et al., 20151871), have increased potential for break-off events at the floe edge (Ford et al., 20131872), or can result in decreased presence (or total absence) of ice-associated marine mammals with an absence of summer sea ice (Eicken et al., 20141873).

For many polar residents, especially Indigenous peoples, the physical environment underpins social determinants of well-being, including physical and mental health. Changes to the environment impact most dimensions of health and well-being (Parlee and Furgal, 20121904; Ostapchuk et al., 20151905). Climate change consequences in polar regions (Sections 3.3.1.1, 3.4.1.2) have impacted key transportation routes (Gearheard et al., 20061906; Laidler, 20061907; Ford et al., 20131908; Clark et al., 2016a1909) and pose increased risk of injury and death during travel (Durkalec et al., 20141910; Durkalec et al., 20151911; Clark et al., 2016b1912; Driscoll et al., 20161913).

In the Arctic, responses to climate change do not only lead to international governance cooperation but also to competition in access to natural resources, especially hydrocarbons. With ice retreating and thinning, and improved access to natural resources, coastal states are increasingly recurring to the option to invoke Article 76 of the UNCLOS (Art. 76 UNCLOS; Verschuuren, 20132159) and seek to demonstrate with scientific data, submitted to the Commission on the Limits of Continental Shelf, and within a set timeline, that their continental shelf is extended. In that case they can enjoy sovereign rights beyond the EEZ. It is very unlikely that this new trend from states to refer to Article 76 will lead to future (military) conflicts (Berkman and Vylegzhanin, 20132160; Kullerud et al., 20132161; Stokke, 20132162; Verschuuren, 20132163), although the issue cannot be totally dismissed (Kraska, 20112164; Åtland, 20132165; Huebert, 20132166; Cassotta et al., 20152167; Barret, 20162168; Cassotta et al., 20162169). 2ff7e9595c